President Barack Obama attends a briefing on Afghanistan in the Situation Room of the White House. Photo by White House photographer Pete Souza

I find that whenever I think about Afghanistan, my gut knots up. Every time I think I know where I stand, someone or events persuade me to rethink my views.

Here are the facts I start with. The attack of 9/11 was developed in Afghanistan, and we as a nation had little choice but to retaliate. We are not safe as long as Al Qaeda has a safe haven to plan its evil.

Afghanistan is in some ways hardly a nation at all; and insofar as there is a central authority, it is thoroughly corrupt. The geography makes this part of the world incredibly difficult to control or to fight in.

We all realize how costly the war is both in human life and national treasure. I look at the young faces of the men and women who die there each week at the end of PBS’s Newshour, and I never fail to be heartbroken.

Some are middle aged dads and moms, called from their civilian life. Some of the younger ones look like they belong in prom pictures rather than in berets. What war is so essential that we send our fellow citizens to die half way around the world?

I listened to President Obama’s speech last Tuesday. I was and am skeptical about a surge in Afghanistan. I am old enough to think long and hard about whether we are making the mistake of Vietnam all over again.

There are some eerie similarities, although as a historian I know that I must not fall for simplistic and hasty analogies.

President Obama was persuasive in much that he said. His points about the relationship of Vietnam and Afghanistan wars were well taken.

I am impressed that he has a coherent strategy that he is able to explain to us citizens. And I know that he listened to many points of view and considered them.

But I am a regular reader of Nicholas Kristoff in the New York Times. Both before and after the President’s speech, he wrote powerfully about the dangers and the likely futility of our new strategy in Afghanistan.

He has argued that to defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda, we should build 30,000 schools rather than send an additional 30,000 troops. I so want him to be right.

I have recently listened to Greg Mortenson, author of the best selling Three Cups of Tea, make arguments parallel to those of Kristoff.

I also think every day about one of my boys who did a tour of duty in Iraq and a second in Afghanistan.

I think he has suffered greatly from his experiences and that most likely these experiences will cause him pain and increase his instability for a long time. I have two college friends whose lives were radically damaged by their experiences in Vietnam.

I read the statistics concerning PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder), and my encounters with one of those statistics makes me want to be damned sure that our nation’s war in Afghanistan is indeed a war of self-defense.

Then there is the worry of Pakistan. Here is a nuclear state, and not a particularly stable one, that has lost control of parts of the nation; and some of those areas have become safe havens for our enemies.

How do we respect Pakistani sovereignty in order not to lose a needed ally and yet keep from losing the war in Afghanistan because our enemies will have a kind of “get out of jail free” card in South Waziristan?

There is another issue that concerns me that has not gotten so much press attention. Al Qaeda was able to establish itself in Afghanistan in the first place because that nation was what we call a failed state.

There was no effective government, and the Taliban set up shop and then allowed Al Qaeda to operate there.

Let’s assume for a moment that we accomplish our goals in Afghanistan. Are we ignoring failed or failing states that might become the next safe havens for Al Qaeda?

I fear that we are. Somalia is hardly a state at all these days, and we read constantly about Somali pirates that capture huge oil tankers and hold them for ransom.

Just across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia is another failing state where Al Qaeda is becoming more powerful.

And unlike Somalia, Yemen is an Arab state that borders Saudi Arabia, where most of the pilots on 9/11 originated. I am not so naive to think that the US is literally ignoring Somalia and Yemen.

I have no doubt that we have intelligence and that we are trying to work through diplomatic channels so that these nations do not become more serious threats to us and our allies. But, clearly they are not a primary focus given our commitment in Afghan-istan.

How does anyone sort out all of these elements of the conflict we are in? How do we not lose our emotional bond with our own soldiers and so many innocent civilians who have suffered unspeakable tragedies without simply letting our emotions dictate policy?

How do we weigh all the factors I have mentioned plus quite a few others to come to a decision about a policy, a strategy?

What should the U.S. do in order to achieve our goals, which are, I think, to allow no place for Al Qaeda to plot its terror, to bring peace to a nation that has known so little peace, and to end American deaths and Americans coming home without limbs and with PTSD?

President Obama has an answer, a coherent answer. I wish I were sure that it is the right answer.

Tagged as: Afghanistan